Tagged: Dwight Howard

Dwight Howard, Rob Hennigan, and Prospect Theory

The Dwightmare, or the inability of Orlando Magic Dwight Howard to force his way to a basketball organization of his choosing has become a long-running joke. A book has been published with “Dwightmare” as the title and basketball ball fans the world over greet the term, and the player and the indecision that it references, with eye-rolls.
Howard had the opportunity to force his way to Brooklyn, his organization of choice, but buckled and signed the option on his contract that keeps him under the control of The Orlando Magic for the 2012-13 season. Successfully pressuring  Dwight, a 3-Time NBA Defensive Player of the Year, to resign wasn’t enough to save the jobs of GM Otis Smith or well-thought of coach Stan van Gundy.
Smith is an executive who has long been considered inept. When he took The Magic job he had to great building blocks, Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, and cap room. He undervalued Nelson and squandered his capspace on Rashard Lewis. The prodigious talents of Dwight Howard, and the weakness of The Eastern Conference in 2009, allowed The Magic to reach The NBA Finals where they were defeated in 5 games by Pau Gasol and The Los Angeles Lakers. The Magic haven’t been a legitimate contender for The NBA Championship since.
Washington Wizards v/s Orlando Magic February ...

Washington Wizards v/s Orlando Magic February 4, 2011 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Rob Hennigan now heads up The Magic front office, and he is hesitant to part with Dwight Howard. Many point to the pride of The Magic being wounded by Dwight’s demand, and the history of the franchise that lost both Shaquille O’Neal and Tracy McGrady to trade demands as impediments to moving Howard. I believe the bitterness over the loss of past Franchise players to be overstated.
Why won’t Hennigan pull the trigger on a Dwight Howard trade? Prospect Theory gives us an answer in The Possibility effect. Here is The Possibility Effect as described by Nobel Prize Winner Daniel Kahneman in “Thinking, Fast and Slow”:
The Possibility Effect causes highly unlikely outcomes to be weighted disproportionately more than they “deserve”.
When you consider a sure loss and a gamble with a high probability of a larger loss, diminishing sensitivity makes the sure loss more aversive, and the certainty effect reduces aversiveness of the gamble. The same two factors enhance the attractiveness of the gamble where the outcome is positive.
The proper course of action for Rob Hennigan was/is to move Dwight Howard as quickly as possible, even though the urge to seek risk “feels” right.
Holding onto Dwight poses a great deal of risk. There is a hope that Dwight will change his mind and resign, as he has changed his mind before, but relying on such a mercurial star could cripple the organization. Injury, or a loss of athletic explosion as a result of the back injury that kept Mr. Howard of out the playoffs could severely diminish the value of Dwight on the trade market. It could also cast an even larger pall of regret on The Magic organization because they didn’t move Howard at last season’s trade deadline and rebuffed trade offers from The Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, and Brooklyn Nets.
Adrian Wojnarowski reports that there are talks that Dwight Howard could be on the move in a 4 team deal involving The Magic, Lakers, Nuggets, and 76ers.
Here’s hoping that Hennigan knows that it is time to stop gambling in hopes of engineering an unlikely outcome, Dwight agreeing to resign, and pulls the trigger so our long National Dwightmare can finally come to an end.